Friday, November 7, 2008

OCBC earnings release

Results review OCBC reported a decline in core net earnings to S$396mil (-6.8%
yoy, +3.9% qoq, 2Q08: S$381mil) due to higher operating profits but negated by
higher allowances.
Net interest income grew to S$684mil (+20.9% yoy, +1.0% qoq) attributable to 20.2%
growth in loans and improved NIM of 13bps to 2.18% due to lower cost of funds and
higher spreads. Non-interest income was 4.0% lower at S$462mil from lower fee
income, lower foreign exchange income and net losses of S$26mil on disposal of
investment securities. Expenses increased to S$492mil (+15.5% yoy, +4.0% qoq)
due to increased salaries and headcount, overseas investment, business-volume
related costs and consolidation of PacificMas Berhad’s expenses. Cost to income
was higher at 43.0%.
Gross loans expanded to S$81.4bil (+19.6% yoy, +3.8% qoq), driven by corporate
and SME loans in Singapore. Building and construction loans grew 38.9% to
S$16.5bil while housing loans increased 5.6% to S$19.7bil.
The Bank took a S$156mil allowance for loans and other assets comprising of S$
30mil for specific allowances, S$9mil for portfolio allowances, S$4.0mil for corporate
CDOs and S$113mil for debt securities.
NPLs fell 19.0% over the year to S$1.20bil while the NPL ratio improved to 1.3% from
2.1% last year. Total cumulative allowances amounted to 128% of NPLs as
compared to 107% last year. CAR ratio increased to 14.7% with Tier 1 higher at
14.4% after the issuance of S$2.5bil of Tier 1 preference shares.
Revise earnings estimate From history, OCBC recorded higher impairment charge
of 291bps of loans in 1998 as Singapore went through a recession during the Asian
Financial Crisis. Similarly in the Dotcom bust, OCBC charge off 108bps of loans as
impairment both in 2001 and 2002 following the contraction of the Singapore
economy in 2001.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Delong Holdings: In the red

Margins hit heavily. Despite posting a 59.7% gain in revenue YoY for 3Q08 from S$399.3m to S$637.5m due to higher sales volume from expanded production capacities and higher ASPs, Delong’s gross profit fell a hefty 85.4% from S$39.7m to S$5.8m during the same period. This also meant that gross profit margins plummeted YoY from 10.0% to 0.9% for 3Q08. Consequently, it slumped into net losses of S$11.9m for 3Q08, against profits of S$24.7m.

Comparison of exceptional gains. Almost 73% of the S$11.2m exceptional gains comprised of a foreign exchange gain of S$8.2m, which resulted from a revaluation of bank borrowings denominated in USD as it weakened against the RMB during the third quarter. This was against a foreign exchange loss of S$2.7m in 3Q07. Therefore, stripping out these differences, the Group’s slump would have been more pronounced - a net loss of S$20.1m in 3Q08 versus NPAT of S$27.4m in the previous corresponding period.

Increase in finance costs. Total debt (interest-bearing only, hence the convertible zero-coupon bonds are excluded) as of 9M08 stood at S$340.2m versus S$188.0m a year ago, which represents an 81.0% increase YoY. As a consequence of taking on more debt, finance costs surged by 140.7%, from S$6.9m in 3Q07 to S$16.6m in 3Q08. The huge increase in borrowings brings the Group’s gearing to 77.7%, and provided another drag to its bottom line for 3Q08.

Our synopsis. The Group sold 650k tonnes of HRCs and 32k tonnes of steel billets in 3Q08, versus 601k HRCs and 10k tonnes of steel billets in 3Q07, representing a small gain in tonnage sold of 11.7%. This was an underachievement on the back of production capacity having increased from 2.4m tonnes in Jan 07 to 3.0m tonnes in Jan 08. There has been a considerable slowdown in the Chinese steel industry, exemplified by the shutting down of production by as much as 20% by the largest players, lower raw material prices, and battered prices of steel products.

Another obvious reading of a deteriorating operating environment is the Group’s gross profit margin, which slumped from 10.0% to 0.9% in the third quarter. This boiled down to higher input costs locked-in or procured earlier in the year versus falling ASPs of steel products as prices started coming off from late Jul 08 onwards

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Olam: risk management system in place

Prices of most inventories are hedged. Olam’s business model is to earn a margin from providing the supply chain management service to its clients, and Olam does not speculate on soft commodity prices to get its margin. Olam typically hedges 80-85% of its inventories with futures contracts (futures contract exist for cotton, coffee, cocoa and sugar) and forward agreements. Price volatility for these hedged commodities will therefore not impact on Olam’s profitability. However, there remains a 15-20% of its inventory which is unhedged, and this is estimated at S$269-358m (based on Jun 08 inventories of S$1.79b). Management indicated that the price volatility of these unhedged commodities is typically less than that for commodities with futures contracts. If the prices of these unhedged positions were to hypothetically fall 10%, then PBT could fall S$27-36m. However, we note that the impact is only one-time and the situation will normalize when commodity prices stabilize.

Olam controls its customer exposure according to some grading system. For the larger customers, Olam deals with them on a cash-against-documents basis. For the next level of customers (which are the smaller ones), the price exposure is limited to 3-6 months and not more than US$200k per invoice. Lastly, for some African customers, sales is done on the spot. This management system helps Olam control its counter-party risk.

Balance sheet strength remains comfortable. Olam has a net debt to equity ratio of 3.17x. After adjustments for stocks and debtors (which are liquid and cash-like in nature), the ratio falls to 0.74x. As of Jun 08, Olam has S$1.86b of working capital loans repayable by Jun 09. Management sees continued support from banks for its working capital financing, as these are rolling in nature (upon delivery of commodities to customers, Olam receives payment and pays off the working capital loans, and takes another loan when customers give new orders). Besides these working capital loans, Olam’s next refinancing obligation is US$200m at the end of FY10.

Olam has guided volume growth of 16-20% pa for FY09 and FY10. However, we have cut our revenue forecasts to factor in lower commodity prices. We have also cut our FY09 and FY10 net profit forecasts by 9% and 6% respectively to factor in losses from unhedged positions and slower demand growth given the global economic downturn.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

U.S. Stocks Drop, Dow Average Posts Worst 2-Day Loss Since '87

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks slid and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its worst two-day loss since 1987 after jobless claims jumped and the shrinking economy decimated earnings at companies from Blackstone Group Inc. to News Corp.

Exxon Mobil Corp. dropped 4.3 percent, leading energy companies to the biggest declines in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as oil slid to a 19-month low below $61 a barrel. News Corp. sank 16 percent after the media company controlled by Rupert Murdoch said ad sales decreased. Blackstone, the world's largest private-equity firm, lost 9.5 percent after posting the biggest quarterly loss in its 18 months as a public company.

``We're a long way from the end of the economic challenges,'' said Mike Morcos, who helps manage $1 billion at Old Second Wealth Management in Aurora, Illinois. ``Earnings next year are going to be significantly lower and estimates are going to continue to come down.''

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 4.8 percent to 907.52 at 3:22 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 411.86 points, or 4.5 percent, to 8,727.41, extending its two-day loss to almost 10 percent. The Russell 2000 Index of small U.S. companies declined 2.6 percent to 501.06. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed markets lost 5.8 percent to 925.71.

The two-day tumble wiped out more than half of the S&P 500's rebound from a five-year low on Oct. 27. An industry report showing an unexpected decline in sales at chain stores in October also weighed on stocks as 23 of 27 companies in the S&P 500 Retailing Index slumped.

Europe Slides

BP Plc led a 5.6 percent retreat in Europe's benchmark index even after the Bank of England unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percentage points to 3 percent to contain damage from a recession. Switzerland's central bank and the European Central Bank reduced their main lending rates by 50 basis points.

The S&P 500 is down almost 38 percent this year, the steepest annual retreat since 1937. The benchmark for U.S. equities has plunged 41 percent since its record in October 2007 as the U.S. economy shrunk in two of the last four quarters.

``It's just been a steady, steady sell,'' said Alan Gayle, the Richmond, Virginia-based senior strategist at Ridgeworth Investments, which oversees about $70 billion. ``The pain and frustration and anxiety of these volatile moves from one day to the next has discouraged a lot of investors to move to the sidelines.''

The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, climbed 16 percent to 63.24. The measure tracks the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500.

About 481,000 workers filed initial jobless claims last week, the Labor Department said today in Washington, exceeding the 477,000 projected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The number of people staying on benefit rolls was the most since February 1983.

A report tomorrow will probably show U.S. employers eliminated jobs in October for a 10th consecutive month, based on economists' estimates.

Earnings Watch

Earnings at companies in the S&P 500 that have reported third-quarter results fell 7.2 percent on average, Bloomberg data show. Analysts expect full-year profits to drop 7.7 percent, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

S&P 500 energy companies lost 4.7 percent as a group, as oil declined for the third time this week. Crude for December delivery retreated 7 percent to $60.71 a barrel.

Exxon Mobil, the world's largest oil company, slipped $2.43 to $71.26, while Chevron Corp. slid 4.9 percent to $71.25.

Cisco declined 26 cents to $17.13 after earlier dipping as low as $16.67. Chief Executive Officer John Chambers said sales will drop as much as 10 percent in the second quarter because of the financial crisis. In August, Chambers predicted an advance of 8.5 percent from a year earlier.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. tumbled 11 percent to $3.18. The second-largest maker of personal-computer processors plans to cut 500 jobs, about 3 percent of the workforce, as part of its effort to return to profitability.

Technology companies in the S&P 500 lost 4 percent collectively. Dell Inc., Intel Corp. and Hewlett-Packard Co. fell more than 4 percent.

`Macro Concerns'

Amazon.com Inc. slid 7.3 percent to $48.18. The largest Internet retailer was cut to ``hold'' from ``buy'' at Citigroup, which noted the shares' surge of as much as 36 percent since third-quarter results and ``heightened macro concerns'' including slower consumer spending.

Tyco Electronics Ltd. tumbled 10 percent to $17.03. Fiscal fourth-quarter profit fell 55 percent on restructuring costs and the company forecast a ``significant'' drop in sales and earnings this period.

News Corp.'s Class A shares tumbled $1.43 to $8.36. Fiscal 2009 profit will drop in the ``low to mid teens'' in percentage terms, the company said after previously forecasting a gain of 4 percent to 6 percent.

Financial stocks in the S&P 500 fell 5 percent as a group, dragged down by Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. The group is down 52 percent in 2008 as the slowing economy raises concern banks will be hit by more bad loans after the subprime mortgage market's collapse led to $690 billion in credit losses worldwide.

Blackstone's Loss

Blackstone Group LP tumbled 8.8 percent to $7.84. The world's largest private-equity firm posted the biggest quarterly loss in 18 months as a public company as the financial crisis eroded the value of the businesses and real estate it has acquired. Blackstone had been expected to break even, based on the average estimate of seven analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Wells Fargo declined 9.3 percent to $28.74 after the biggest bank on the U.S. West Coast said it plans to sell stock to fund the purchase of Wachovia Corp. The bank also said losses from the acquisition will be less than previously expected.

The bank, which disclosed the share offering yesterday in a statement, had said it would raise as much as $20 billion to fund the deal. That was before the Treasury said it was buying $25 billion of Wells Fargo's preferred shares.

Big Lots Inc. plunged 24 percent to $17.67 for the steepest decline in the S&P 500. The largest U.S. seller of overstocked and discontinued items said third-quarter profit may be below its prediction.

Retail Slump

October same-store sales fell 0.9 percent at U.S. chain stores, the first drop in seven months, and declined 4.2 percent excluding Wal-Mart, the International Council of Shopping Centers said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 0.7 percent increase.

Excluding the effect of the shifting Easter holiday, it's the first decline since at least 2000, according to research firm Retail Metrics LLC.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, increased as much as 4.1 percent before surrendering its gain as the market extended its retreat. October sales climbed more than the company projected after consumers, battered by job losses and shrinking credit, bought discounted groceries and Halloween costumes.

Analysts are lowering fourth quarter and 2009 profit forecasts for U.S. companies as third-period results miss projections at the highest rate in almost 11 years.

Companies in the S&P 500 may see fourth-quarter earnings advance 15 percent, down from 42 percent projected at the end of August, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Profits in 2009 may grow 13 percent, analysts say, compared with the 24 percent predicted two months ago. Yahoo! Inc. climbed 3.1 percent to $14.35. Chief Executive Officer Jerry Yang, coping with the cancellation of an advertising agreement with Google Inc., said at a conference in San Francisco that he's open-minded about forging other deals.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month loans in dollars dropped 12 basis points to 2.39 percent today, the lowest level since November 2004, according to the British Bankers' Association.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Jadason Enterprises:Outlook has not improved

Topline up, bottomline down. PCB driller Jadason saw a 72% increase in its 3Q08 revenue to S$58.5m although net profit was 58% lower at S$2.1m. This was mainly due to growth in the company’s lower-margined Equipment and Supplies (ES) division outstripping that of the Manufacturing and Support Services (MSS) segment.

Higher demand from the PCB manufacturers had boosted Jadason’s ES business, although the improved numbers from the company’s PCB drilling factory in Dongguan failed to shore up the whole MSS division. Additionally, FX losses of S$0.5m as compared to a S$1m gain in 3Q07 also impacted bottomline during 3Q08.

Plunge in margins. As seen in Figure 1, overall margins were drastically lower. While revenue for Jadason’s ES business had jumped 140% to S$40.2m in 3Q08 as shown in Figure 2, operating margins dived from 11.7% to 3.8% due to an unfavourable change in sales mix. Additionally, the company’s MSS segment also saw operating profit tumble 67.4% to S$1.3m despite the 6.1% increase in turnover as dismal performances from the PCB drilling facilities in Suzhou and Malaysia proved to be a drag.

Balance sheet concerns linger. Net gearing remained high at 61% although it was slightly better from 65% in 2Q08 while current ratio remained relatively flat at 1.3x. The company was also unable to generate a positive operating cash flow in 3Q08. In light of the current credit conditions, we note that Jadason may risk incurring higher borrowing costs should it continue to fail to generate cash to repay its debt which mainly consists of short-term loans. Earnings may therefore be hit as a result.

Murky outlook. Revenue from the company’s ES division is expected to stay healthy in 4Q08 although visibility for its MSS segment is clouded due to the on-going financial crisis. As management looks to focus on cash and cost management rather than capital expenditure going forward, we believe that bottomline growth in the company, if any, will be limited.

The North American PCB book-to-bill ratio currently stands at 0.95 which has been below the parity mark since May 08. Although Jadason is currently trading at 0.4x FY08F P/B which is in-line with the industry average, we are maintaining our SELL recommendation and slashing our price target to S$0.05 (from S$0.075 previously) due to its bearish prospects. We also note that save for Elec & Eltek, the other two SGX-listed PCB drillers (Multi-Chem and Eucon) are also expected to see dismal results for at least the rest of the year

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

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