Friday, December 19, 2008

CentraLand: S$0.48 Unrated - J-Expo Exploration

source:DMG

We recently visited J-Expo, CentraLand’s first commercial development in the nucleus of Zhengzhou City, Henan province. Spanning 65,890 sm, the building comprises of six levels of 2,560 retail units and seven storeys of 192 office units. Although Zhengzhou is a lower tier and developing city, we were pleasantly surprised by the reasonable standards of J-Expo’s architecture, as well as its well-diversified and well-organized tenant mix. Further, as J-Expo represents CentraLand’s maiden foray into commercial properties, we believe that it is a commendable effort. At present, 93% of J-Expo’s 1,792 retail units for sale have already been snapped up and the 768 retail units for rental have a decent occupancy rate of ~ 90%. The robust demand is unsurprising given that it is located within the main wholesale centre of Zhengzhou, coupled with close proximity to key bus and rail transport stations. More importantly, Zhengzhou’s status as China’s transportation hub makes it one of the most vibrant wholesale centres in China, thus supporting a thriving demand for retail units within the city as people across China constantly travel there to purchase wholesale goods for resale in their respective provinces and cities. For CentraLand, we believe that this is also positive for its upcoming new development – Tianrong Fashion City, a fashion apparel wholesale centre. In the medium-long term, it could also look at acquiring or developing sites which can benefit from the wholesale trade.

On the back of the handing over of ~ 1,000 retail and office units in J-Expo, CentraLand recorded a 1,292% YoY surge in 3Q08 PATMI to RMB74.3m. For the next 2 - 3 quarters, we reckon CentraLand can still recognize income contribution from 803 pre-sold retail and office units which have yet to be delivered, as well as potential sales of 184 other unsold ones. However, we are less certain of its 2H09 performance, as J-Expo’s contribution should come only in the form of rental income (estimated at RMB20.9m p.a.) as a bulk of its sales contribution would have been recognized then. Simultaneously, we are not expecting a robust take-up for GLSS Phase 3. From our view, some of the more likely avenues for topline enhancement could be the acquisition of another commercial development which has a higher probability of asset turnaround, possible sales of some of J-Expo’s retail rental units and quickened finalization of Tianrong Fashion City.

Following a pledge to construct more low-income housing and cutting mortgage rates and down payments for first-time home buyers, the Chinese government has introduced more concrete measures. These include the trimming of business and transaction taxes for property sales, as well as policies to make it easier for developers to obtain credit. Given that real estate investment accounts for about 10% of China’s GDP, we are not surprised by the recent slew of favorable policies. Nonetheless, we believe that it could take a longer than expected time for the policies to fully filter to each individual province and city in China. As such, we estimate a recovery in China’s property sector sometime beginning 2H09. Chinese property developers on the SGX are currently trading at 1.2x their book value, while CentraLand has a P/B ratio of 3.4x. We do not have a rating for CentraLand. Catalysts for the counter include the finalization of the purchase of an adjacent site sitting next to Tianrong Fashion City, acquisitions of more commercial sites, as well as global recovery in buying sentiments within the property sector. Risks include its over-dependence on one city and two projects for its current income contribution.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

SGX: S$5.40 SELL (TP: S$3.95) - Nov futures turnover volume plunged

Dec stockmarket turnover value remains soft. Average daily stockmarket turnover value was S$0.96b for the first 11 trading days of Dec 08. Though this is close to Nov 08’s S$1.04b, it represents a sharp 31% decline from Oct 08’s S$1.40b. The average value per share traded has also fallen from Oct 08’s S$1.03 to Dec 08’s S$0.86 – suggesting a shift towards trading of smaller cap stocks. However, we note that Dec is seasonally a month of weaker trading volumes due to the holiday season. Hence, despite the weakness in Dec, we are maintaining our FY09 and FY10 ADT assumptions of S$1.19b and S$1.24b respectively.

Futures turnover strength has abated. After recording very strong futures trading volume of 6.47m and 6.84m in Sep and Oct 08 respectively, futures turnover fell to 4.44m in Nov 08, with a 1.69m MoM decline in Nikkei futures trading volume. We do not read this positively as derivatives clearing fees account for 29% of 1QFY09 overall revenue. As the weakness only occurred for one month, we maintain our FY09 and FY10 futures turnover volume of 72m and 75m respectively, and will review the numbers, if necessary, at a later date.

Is an assumption of FY10 ADT of S$2.1b reasonable? We do not think so, given that Dec 08’s was S$0.96b. SGX traded at mid-teens P/E in 2005, when FY05 ADT fell 14.5% YoY. We believe a fair P/E rating is 13x, factoring in the more severe decline this time round – we are assuming FY09 ADT to fall 47%. Our target price of S$3.95 is pegged to this 13x P/E rating. Based on the current price of S$5.40 (and applying a 13x P/E rating), the market is assuming a FY10 ADT of S$2.1b, which we feel is unachievable. Maintain SELL on SGX.

source: DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Pan Hong Property Group: S$0.20 NEUTRAL (TP: S$0.25) - A Modest But Reasonable Take-Up in Huzhou

A Modest But Reasonable Take-Up In Huzhou

Pan Hong attained a modest take-up rate of 41% for Huzhou Liyang Jingyuan (HLJ) Phase 2, a 150-unit residential project which it launched two weeks ago. A total of 61 units (~7,000 sm in GFA) were transacted at an average selling price of RMB4,950 psm, slightly under our estimates of RMB5,000 psm. Assuming a breakeven price of RMB3,000 psm, they would contribute 0.41¢ / share to NAV when completed and handed over in 2Q09. Despite the weakening sentiments surrounding China’s real estate sector and deteriorating operating environment for property developers, Pan Hong was able to sell close to half of the project within a short period of time from the launch date. We view this positively, and attribute it to a confluence of factors, including Pan Hong’s proven track record in Huzhou (having completed 7 projects here), the buyers’ genuine owner-occupier profile, as well as the project’s quality and good location. Of late, there has been a slew of government policies aimed at bolstering the role of the financial sector in supporting economic growth. At the same time, the Chinese government could be implementing more sector-specific policies in the near term. While the government’s increasing ardor in its introduction of expansionary policies are positive, we would like to stress that implementation is the key here. Judging from the size of the country and historical lead time of policies meted out, it could take a longer than expected time for the intended impact of the policies to filter down to each of the different provinces and cities. Since our initiation report, Pan Hong’s share price has remained flat. Given its residential-centric business model, Pan Hong is not spared from the current weakening sentiments, sales volumes and take-up rates that are plaguing the property sector across China, including the lower-tier cities which Pan Hong is exposed to. Any available catalyst would have to rely on the rate at which the government’s various policies hit the ground running, coupled with a global recovery in real estate sentiments. On the bright side, Pan Hong does have a relatively strong balance sheet - current net gearing ratio of 0.33x and cash position of RMB111.9m. In light of the above, we maintain our NEUTRAL call for the stock with a target price of S$0.25.

source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Parkway Holdings: S$1.20 BUY-Initial (TP: S$1.45) - Strong branding will help it ride out challenging times

Strong branding will help it ride out challenging times

Thanks to a strong brand name, Parkway has been able to execute its strategies in growing revenue intensity. In 9M08, it recorded a 5.9% YoY increase in net revenue per adjusted patient day to S$1,850. Going forward, Parkway plans to focus more on complex cases that would generate more revenue. This would help to offset the expected lower hospital admissions due to the economic downturn. Its achievements in the medical field have given Parkway the edge over peers, to draw patients to its medical facilities.

New 350-bed Novena hospital. Parkway secured the 1.7ha Novena Terrace / Irrawaddy Road hospital site, with a bid of S$1.284b. The land parcel has been fully paid on 20 May 2008. This site can be developed into a 500-bed private hospital with a maximum GFA of 778,500 sf. Parkway intends to put in 350 beds in this new Novena hospital. The hospital is expected to be operationally ready in 2011 and Parkway would be in a good position to capture the influx of medical tourists.

Regional footprint contributes to earnings. Parkway operates hospitals and medical centres across the region, allowing it to draw foreign patients to its Singapore operations, and also contribute to earnings. Having a regional exposure also helps to boost Parkway’s brand name. On top of that, with hospitals in the region, Parkway is also in a position to capture the portion of medical tourists who opt for treatments in the neighbouring countries where Parkway has a presence, given the current economic climate. In that sense, Parkway may not lose out that much, from the potential dip in foreign patients.

Initiate coverage with BUY recommendation. With a strong brand name and regional footprint, Parkway is positioned to draw patients to its medical facilities, even in the economic downturn. Parkway is a larger healthcare provider, compared with its peers, in terms of market capitalization and operations. Hence, we ascribe a PE of 13x for its healthcare services and hospital business. Based on our SOTP valuation, we arrive at a 12-month target price of S$1.45 for Parkway.

Source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Low Keng Huat Q3 profit trebles

Property and hospitality group Low Keng Huat (Singapore) yesterday reported a net profit of
$12.95 million for the third quarter ended Oct 31, 2008 - more than treble the $3.75 million for
the previous corresponding quarter. This drove earnings per share for the quarter to 1.75
cents, up from 0.51 cents in the year-ago period. Higher earnings came on the back of a near
doubling in revenue to $52.26 million from $26.45 million. For the nine months ended Oct 31,
Low Keng Huat's net profit surged 105 per cent from a year ago to $23.36 million. The higher
earnings were mainly due to higher development profit from associated companies.
Contributions from projects such as the one-north Residences, Duchess Residences and
Regency Suites had increased, while those from Domain 21 had dropped.
Low Keng Huat also benefited from lower construction losses, partly because it managed to
recover some cost increases. Net earnings in the nine months would have been higher if not
for lower profits from the hotel and investment segments. Net profit before tax and minority
interests for the hotel business dropped as concessionary income from gaming centre
operations fell. Overall hotel revenues were also lower as the weaker Australian dollar shaved
revenues from Duxton Hotel Perth. Investments also booked a lower net profit before tax and
minority interest. This was due to the sale of some quoted equities which had to be marked to
market. Group revenue in the nine months soared 66 per cent from a year ago to $148.09
million, driven largely by an increase in construction revenue.
There was a higher percentage of completion for ongoing projects and new projects - the
Hardrock Hotel at Sentosa and Meritus Mandarin Hotel - had also started. Low Keng Huat said
that it is 'in a strong financial position'. Its net gearing as at Oct 31 was 15.4 per cent, lower
than the 24.2 per cent at end-January. The group also expects its two hotels in Perth and Ho
Chi Minh City to perform well despite more challenging economic conditions in Western
Australia and Vietnam. Low Keng Huat won a $295 million project last month to construct a
shopping mall cum bus interchange complex at Serangoon Central. Its order book as at
November was $900 million.
Source: Business Times and Bloomberg

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

SIA Nov traffic slump biggest in 5 years

(Singapore) Singapore Airlines, the world's largest carrier by market value, reported its biggest
slump in traffic in more than five years as a global recession cuts travel demand. Passenger
numbers slid 6.1 per cent last month to 1.54 million, the airline said in a Singapore stock
exchange statement yesterday. That's the biggest drop since a 7.6 per cent decline in August
2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
SIA's traffic has declined in two of the past three months as financial firms cut business travel
and people cancel leisure trips. Global air traffic will decline 3 per cent next year, the first drop
since 2001, the International Air Transport Association has said. The airline gained 0.2 per cent
to $11.06 in trading yesterday. The shares have declined 36 per cent this year.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Cambridge Industrial Trust: S$0.28 BUY (TP: S$0.49) - Change at the Helm, Refinancing Overhang Removed

source: dmg

Cambridge Industrial Trust (CIT) has appointed Christopher Dale Calvert as the new CEO of Cambridge Industrial Trust Management (CITM), CIT’s REIT manager. While we reckon that CIT could gain from Christopher’s vast array of expertise in various segments of the property sector, we note that aside from his 1-year stint as CEO of Macarthurcook Industrial REIT, the bulk of his real estate experience evolved around the Australian market. However, as the previous CEO will remain with CITM, we believe CIT can still benefit from his wealthier experience within the Singapore industrial property sector. Additionally, we think that the new appointment could signify CIT’s intention to look into cross-border assets, as well as further enhancing its Australian identity. On a separate note, CIT has agreed to the terms of an S$390.1m syndicated 3-yr term loan from RBS, HSBC and nabCapital. With an effective annual interest rate of 6.6%, the loan will be used to refinance CIT’s all existing debt facilities of S$490.0m, of which it has drawn S$369.2m. While the agreed interest rate is higher than our assumed estimates of 5.6%, we believe this is reasonably lesser than what the market was pricing in (we forecast to be 10 – 12%). Our last sensitivity analysis has shown that for every 0.5% increase in funding cost, DPU would head down by 0.22¢. Until the final facility documentation is agreed and loan drawdown, we are maintaining our DPU estimates and fair value. We conjecture that CIT’s successful debt refinancing is an encouragement for S-REITs as a whole. Even though it is a smaller-cap REIT, CIT was able to secure a clean debt (which we view as most optimal amongst all refinancing options despite the higher funding costs eating into DPU), thus not risking a potential share dilution from issuance of equity or convertible bonds, or asset sales to pare down debt levels. More importantly, as CIT is the REIT with the first major loan due for refinancing in 2009, we believe that this event could be a harbinger of better things to come for other REITs with major debt due in 2009. The removal of the refinancing overhang is music to the ears of existing unitholders, and we thus advise prospective investors to buy the stock on its relatively higher yield of 17 - 21% compared to the sector average of 13 – 14%. Maintain BUY at S$0.49.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Jardine Cycle & Carriage: NEUTRAL - Downgrade (TP: S$11.18) - Outlook is less rosy

Sales of Komatsu equipment may decline in 2009. Overall Indonesian sales of heavy equipment vehicles may drop to 6,000 units in 2009, from an estimated 10,000 in 2008, as buyers face problems obtaining loans, and customers in the mining and plantation industries scrap expansion plans. Astra’s subsidiary in the Heavy Equipment business, United Tractors, which has a 45% market share, indicated in an announcement that it may also fail to reach its target of 4,750 units in 2008.

Plans to boost coal extraction capacity. United Tractors has also announced that it plans to spend US$315m to increase its coal extraction capacity, by 14% to 65m tons a year. It plans to add equipment to its coal mining services unit. This may somewhat offset the decline in its heavy equipment vehicles sales.

Motorcar sales continue to decline MoM. Overall Indonesian motorcar sales reached 47,000 units in November, up 2.6% YoY, but lower than the 54,810 units recorded in October. According to Astra, its November sales were 20,839 units.

Motorcycle sales improved slightly. Overall Indonesian motorcycle sales fell 4.4% YoY to 492,903 units in November, with Honda maintaining the lead with total sales of 230,544 units. This was slightly more than the 222,012 units achieved in October for Honda. Motorcycle unit sales for the first 11 months have already overshot the industry’s target of 5.8m units for 2008, and sales are expected to reach 6m units for the whole year. Automotive sales are expected to be lower in 2009,

We are lowering our target price for JC&C, as we adjust our valuation for its business units. Based on our SOTP valuation, we arrive at a target price of S$11.18, down from S$12.28 previously. This presents a marginal potential upside from current levels. Given the less rosy outlook for 2009, we are downgrading our recommendation to Neutral.

source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Property Sector: NEUTRAL - 1H09 GLS - Good But Not Good Enough

Citing the expected weak global economic outlook in 2009, the Government has decided against adding new sites to the 1H09 Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme. We believe another factor could be attributable to the considerable quantum of remaining sites backlogged from 2H08, where only 2 sites were successfully tendered off, paling in comparison to the average of 15 sites in the previous three semi-annual periods. Further potential supply was trimmed, as a mere 40,000 sm of commercial space would be made available through non-GLS avenues, representing a 72% HoH plunge. Although the move could help to re-calibrate the supply-demand dynamics, we surmise that the crux of the measure is essentially an affirmation of the current sentiments. While we welcome the Government’s move to pare down the potential pipeline of properties and not crowd the market with unnecessary supply when sentiments are already dampened, we hold the view that at this moment, the property market is more in need of demand-side catalysts than supply-side measures. Some of these could come in the form of temporary exemptions of stamp duty and decreased property taxes, as well as a fine-tuned Deferred Payment Scheme (i.e. 30 – 50% of sale price upon purchase to be paid initially, instead of 10 – 20%). Further, we reckon that the market has already priced in this measure following the earlier announcement on 31 Oct 08. As such, we believe the impact on developers’ share prices would be minimal. With the global macroeconomic climate still running its course, the operating environment for property developers has inevitably become increasingly challenging. We believe this is just the inception of a downcycle for the property market. There remain no near-term boosters to galvanize the share-price performance for developers. Aside from more concerted and effective measures by governments worldwide to shore up the economy and assist corporates in tiding through the current rough climate, we look forward to January’s Budget statement for Singapore. For now, we keep our NEUTRAL rating on the property sector and stick to developers which are well-capitalized, have less exposure to the residential segment and equipped with sources of recurring income. We thus maintain our BUY call for CapitaLand at S$3.05.

source:DMG
The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Friday, December 5, 2008

Singtel:Key takeaways from Investor Day

Increasing mobile leadership. SingTel doesn’t seem to be contended with its comfortable lead in both the post-paid and pre-paid mobile segments. It has an overall market share of 46%, up from 40% a year ago. The launch of the iPhone 3G was an integral part of SingTel’s strategy to extend its lead. In fact, Allen Lew, CEO of SingTel Singapore, proclaims that it is the “best thing to happen to SingTel”. The telco garnered important lessons on key information, like what datasavvy subscribers are likely to watch and what are some of the most popular applications. Approximately 30% of the activations are new mobile clients and ARPU is about 1.5 times higher than its post-paid base. Management is confident that the company will reap good returns in time to come, and the knock in margins (due to higher SAC arising from handset subsidy) is a sacrifice it has to make in the near term.

Growing and diversifying ICT business. SingTel aims to sell its one-stop converged ICT services. Corporates that go with SingTel will be able to enjoy bundled services like e-mail, web-hosting, security and network solutions. The proposition has become even stronger with the acquisition of Singapore Computer Systems (SCS), which has 2,000 employees and is expected to be completed this month at a cost of S$240m. This acquisition will allow SingTel’s systems integrator arm NCS to diversify away from Singapore government projects, which currently accounts for a big chunk of its business.

Repositioning the fixed line. The fixed line copper service, where it has a 94% market share, is still very important to SingTel, as it allows the company to “upsell” its mio TV service. In doing so, it has successfully repositioned the traditional home telephone socket. mio TV has 46,000 subscribers, still small compared to StarHub’s 500,000, but nevertheless a credible base. It also claims to have a “critical mass” of channels, with 56 currently.

Update on Next Gen NBN. As a key partner in the winning OpenNet consortium, SingTel is confident of benefiting from the award of the NetCo. As mentioned in previous reports, the red camp will have a few bites of the cherry – OpenNet’s use of its passive infrastructure, sale of the same infrastructure to AssetCo and the participation in profits of OpenNet. Mr Lew assesses that the cost to households post-NBN will be close to S$80 per month, which is apparently higher than its rivals’ estimates.

soource:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Thursday, November 27, 2008

China Aviation Oil: A rebirth to stability? (NEUTRAL\S$0.655\Target S$0.705)

Post-restructuring story. China Aviation Oil (CAO) was brought to its knees by rogue trading of
jet fuel derivatives that amounted to more than US$550m in losses in 2005, but was given a new
lease of life in 2006 through restructuring and a subsequent re-listing. Since then, it had totally
done away with its trading arm and focused on its core business activities, which are mainly the
jet fuel procurement business and investments in complementary businesses.
A gradual swing towards synergistic strategies. As time passed after its re-listing and
subsequent stability in its operations, management realised the importance of streamlining the
business towards more value-adding activities by cutting out irrelevant or non-related investments
and concentrating on business targets that would complement its business-chain, be it going
upstream or downstream. This is evident when the Group disposed of its 5% stake in Compania
Logistica de Hidrocarburos, S.A (a Spanish logistics company) during 1H07, and purchased a
49% stake in the Beijing – Tianjin oil pipeline that should be completed by Jan 09.
Re-visiting trading and hedging activities. The Group announced about six weeks ago that it
will resume its petrochemicals trading business from 4Q08 onwards. Products traded will be
substances such as Benzene, Styrene and Toluene through the inheritance of BP’s Asian
petrochemicals and trading team. The Group also recorded a gain of S$4.8m on a close-out of a
swap deal backed by underlying physical cargo (jet fuel) with a customer in 2Q08. Management
has stressed that such activities are all carried out with the strictest supervision of its newly
established risk-management committee.
Overall business direction. Any expansion of its current operations will revolve around its three
main business segments: 1) Jet fuel supply & trading. 2) Oil-related assets. 3) Trading of other oil
products.
Valuation. We derive a 12-month fair-value target price of S$0.705 using our DCF model,
applying a WACC of 14.8%, a beta of 1.2 and a terminal growth rate of 1%. At the last traded
price, the stock is trading at 6.8x FY08 and 7.9x FY09 P/E, offering a yield of 4.8% and 1.1x P/B.

source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Friday, November 21, 2008

SGX: S$4.73 SELL (TP: S$3.95) - Sharp decline in Nov stockmarket turnover value

source:DMG

Nov stockmarket turnover value is down sharply. Average daily stockmarket turnover value was S$1.06b for the first 12 trading days of Nov 08 – a sharp 20% plunge from the S$1.40b for Oct 08. Concerns on global economic weakness and lack of investor interest have contributed to this trend. The average value per share traded has also fallen sharply from S$1.24 in Sep 08 to only S$0.78 in the first part of Nov 08 – we attribute this to the recent sharp fall in share prices which lowered market capitalization from end-Sep 08’s S$506b to end-Oct 08’s S$383b. We expect stockmarket turnover value to remain weak over the next few months, and have therefore cut both our FY09 and FY10 ADT assumptions by 11% to S$1.19b and S$1.24b respectively.

Futures turnover remain robust. Oct 08 futures trading volume of 6.84m is 86% higher YoY, driven by the Nikkei 225 Index & the CNX Nifty Index futures trading. We believe this strength can persist and have raised our assumption of FY09 & FY10 futures turnover volume both by 7% to 72m & 75m respectively.

Earnings forecasts reduced. Factoring in the above two developments, we are lowering our FY09 and FY10 net profit forecasts by 7% and 8% to S$315.7m and S$323.9m respectively. We believe more market players will cut their earnings forecasts and therefore expect the current consensus expectations of S$335.3m and S$382.5m (for FY09 and FY10 respectively) to fall closer to our forecasts over the next few weeks.

Target price cut from S$5.20 to S$3.95. Given the recent P/E compression across all sectors, we have reviewed our assumptions for SGX target price. Our new target price of S$3.95 is pegged to 13x FY10 P/E – lower than the 16x P/E which we adopted earlier. This target P/E rating is close to the level recorded in FY05, when ADT fell 14.5% YoY. Our sensitivity analysis shows that market players are assuming an ADT exceeding S$1.62b based on the current share price of SGX – a level which we feel is unachievable over the next few quarters.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

MobileOne: S$1.25 BUY (TP: S$1.58) - Value emerges

source:DMG

Stock slides. Since our last note on M1 on 20 Oct 08, the stock has dived 26% on the back of weak sentiments in the market, as well as negative newsflow from the telecommunications industry. The other two telcos, particularly SingTel, painted a bleak outlook for the next few quarters. Consequently, despite the fact that the industry is largely seen to be defensive, the telco index FSTTC fell by 8% in the past month. Before the recent slump, M1 has been one of the most resilient stocks. It only fell 4% for the first nine months of the year, far outperforming the STI’s 32% slump.

Recapping results. While M1’s revenue fell a mere 1.7% to S$196.7m in 3Q08, earnings took a bigger 21.1% knock to S$34.4m due to higher acquisition and retention costs, following the introduction of mobile number portability in Jun 08. EBITDA margin came in at 42.5%, down from last year’s 45.2%. Gearing, at 128.2%, is seemingly high for M1. But this is not very much of an issue, considering that it has strong operating cash flows that will enable it to comfortably pay off its debts and reward shareholders. It has a Net debt/EBITDA of 0.8x (SingTel 1.1x, StarHub 1.2x), while its EBITDA/Interest stands at 40.6, an improvement over the previous year’s 33.1.

Recession’s not the main curse. Looking back at the past recessions, management revealed that the bad debts are quite insignificant – less than 0.5% of revenue. What investors need to be more worried about is competition. The aggressive marketing by all three telcos have led to surging subscriber acquisition and retention costs, and consequently margins being driven down. Our recent discussions with the telcos suggest that this intense competition will be dying down, at least for now.

Churn rate eased. In 3Q08, M1 was hit with a high churn rate of 1.8%, a jump from 1.2% in the previous corresponding period due primarily to SingTel’s launch of the iPhone. This should be reduced to the 1.5% level as competition tames.

Target price down, but value emerges. We have left our earnings estimates at S$160.1m for FY08 (-6.8% YoY) and S$149.1m for FY09 (-6.9% YoY). At S$1.25, it is trading at 7.0x FY08 and 7.5x FY09 P/E, which compares favourably against the industry average of 9.4x. The yields, at 12.2% for FY08 and 11.4% for FY09, are also the best among the three telcos. We have downgraded our target price for M1 from S$1.89 to S$1.58, based on our revised DDM model. We are upgrading the stock to a BUY despite cutting the target price, as it is looking attractive after the recent fall with a potential upside of 26% from current levels.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Swiber Holdings: S$0.55, Downgrade to NEUTRAL (TP: S$0.62) - Margins decline paint a difficult operating environment

Growth in topline, but decline in bottomline. Swiber Holdings (Swiber) announced its 3Q08 results last Friday. 3Q08 revenue grew 186.5% YoY (4.5% QoQ) to US$130.1m buoyed by increased activities in the offshore construction projects in Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and India. However, as a result of higher administrative expenses & finance costs, Swiber’s 3Q08 PATMI declined 7.4% YoY (-18.1% QoQ) to US$16.0m. On a 9M08 basis, Swiber’s revenue turned in US$325.5m, representing 91% of our FY08 estimates, while core PATMI, excluding exceptional gains from disposal of assets, was approximately US$44m, accounting for 74% of our FY08 forecast.
Compression in profit margins faced. Gross profit margin declined by 13.8 ppt YoY (-6.1 ppt QoQ) to 21.6% as a result of the increased usage of third party vessels. Core operating profit margin, excluding gains from disposal of property, plant and equipment and assets held for sale, slid 17.5 ppt YoY (-9.5 ppt QoQ) to 11.9% primarily due to higher administrative expenses of US$10.1m (+85.9% YoY, 46.7% QoQ) as well as finance cost of US$2.9m from bond and bank loans (+215.7% YoY, -7.2% QoQ).
Financing concerns still valid. Swiber’s net debt to equity ratio increased from 0.53x as at 31 Dec 07 to 1.05x as at 30 Sept 08 mainly due to the increase in borrowings (comprising of bank borrowing and issuance of Multi-currency Term Notes bonds). The management assured that it has adequate funding for total committed outstanding capex of US$336m. The management also added that Swiber is exploring other strategies such as asset transfer to further lighten the balance sheet.

Decline in margins reflected difficult operating environment. We have left our FY08 estimates unchanged, but lowered our FY09 revenue by 21% on the back of slowing new contract orders. Consequently, our FY09 net profit is reduced by 29% with further considerations from expected higher administrative and finance expenses. We have also cut our valuation parameter from 8.7x to 3x in line with its peers owing to P/E compression. We have rolled over our valuation based of 3x FY09 recurring earnings. In view of Swiber’s high gearing, we opine Swiber may not pay dividends for the next two years in a bid to preserve cash. Our target price is reduced to S$0.62 (from S$2.17 previously). Downgrade to NEUTRAL.

source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Sembcorp Marine: S$2.05, BUY (TP: S$2.49) - Don't underestimate its value

We valued SCM from another angle and concluded that SCM’s intrinsic value could possibly exceed S$2.90.
S$2.18 from repair and conversion projects - We performed a simple calculation on the net cash flow generated from the repair and conversion projects (assuming debt-free, capex equals depreciation and conservative operating profit margin (OPM) of 22%) and discounted at the rate of 8%. Our simple arithmetic calculation shows that if this counter-cyclical business division is to generate S$2b of revenue per year (to perpetuity), the net present value (NPV) would be S$2.18 (or 88% of our TP).
S$0.72 from rigbuilding division - We ran an analysis of this scenario in a similar fashion, assuming one semi-submersible and one jack-up to be delivered per year. We took both as individual annuity of net cash flow at OPM of 8-10% and discounted rate of 8%, deriving a combined NPV of S$0.72 per share. We believe our assumptions are not unreasonable, given that the management’s mid-term strategy is to deliver 2 semi-submersibles and 2 units of jack-ups/floating production units per year.

We believe the stretched-test for SCM’s worst case scenario would imply business activity constricted to only repair and conversion projects (assuming no new contracts secured – which we believe to be unrealistic) at an intrinsic fundamental value of S$2.18 (and this is still 6% higher than Friday's closing price of S$2.05). However, we believe this is unlikely to be so, as SCM has progressed into an internationally-renowned rig-builder, just second to Keppel Corp.

We chose the conservative S$2.49 as target price, which is based on to sum-of-the-parts valuation:
P/E of 12x FY09 blended earnings for SCM’s rigbuilding, repair and conversion sectors;
Implied value of SCM’s 30% stake in Cosco Shipyard Group (with reference to the implied P/E of 3x FY09 EPS of our valuation in Cosco Corp)
4.98% equity interest of Cosco Corp at Cosco’s TP of S$0.68

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Sunday, November 16, 2008

ComfortDelgro: S$1.30 BUY (TP: S$1.63) -Fuel price strength dampened earnings, but 2010

CD recorded 3Q08 net profit of S$48.3m, down 18.1% YoY, despite a 5.2% YoY increase in turnover. 9M08 net profit of S$155.3m represents 78% of our raised 2008 forecast.

Global bus turnover fell a marginal 1.2% YoY to S$397m, but high fuel prices led to a more severe 36.1% YoY decline in bus operating profit.
Singapore bus turnover expanded 8.7% YoY to S$156m, due to a 6.1% YoY ridership increase to 2,375k rides/day. But high diesel prices led to operating profit (inclusive of advertisement and rental income) falling 32% YoY to S$5.9m.
UK Metroline recorded a 13% YoY turnover contraction due to the weaker Sterling Pound. The 64% YoY plunge in operating profit to S$8.5m was due to higher fuel costs and the benefit of a write-back of pension provision in 3Q07.
Australia bus turnover grew 11.7% YoY to S$54.4m due to indexation of contract revenues, higher mileages operated and more charter work but was partly offset by the weaker Australian Dollar. Its operating profit of S$8.8m is up 3.5% YoY.

Mild growth for global taxi operations. Global taxi turnover was up 2.7% YoY to S$238m, though operating profit fell 16% YoY.
Singapore taxi operating profit fell 29% YoY due to higher provision for accident insurance claims and higher diesel subsidies paid to taxi drivers.
China taxi turnover rose 13% YoY to S$28.6m due to higher rentals on the newer fleet in Beijing and increases in fleets in Chengdu, Jilin and Nanning.

2010 earnings could jump on the back of lower fuel costs. High WTI crude oil price in 3Q08 contributed to the weakness in CD earnings. However, WTI prices has since fallen from Aug 08 monthly average of US$116.70/barrel to 1H Nov 08 average of US$61.70. This is positive for CD earnings going ahead. However, as CD has already partially hedged its fuel price till Jun 09, the expense reduction will be muted until 2H09. We are assuming WTI crude oil price of US$70/barrel for 2009 and US$63/barrel for 2010. However, given the price hedge, the effective price for CD is estimated at US$88/barrel for 2009 and US$63/barrel for 2010. We see this contributing to a S$75m YoY fall in energy and fuel costs for 2010, which is 22% of our forecast 2009 PBT.

Earnings forecasts have been adjusted. We raise our 2008 net profit forecast by 4% to reflect the recent declines in WTI crude oil price. Our 2009 net profit forecast remains unchanged.

Maintain BUY on CD. Our S$1.63 target price is derived from sum-of-the-parts valuation. CD also offers an attractive 2009 dividend yield of 7%. We believe further falls in WTI prices will be the catalyst for investors to relook at investing in CD.

source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Li Heng Chemical Fibre: S$0.295 BUY (TP: S$0.685) - 4Q08 will be a clearer gauge of conditions

3Q08 numbers in-line. Li Heng clocked RMB1.02b worth of revenue for 3Q08, up 53.7% versus 3Q07 of RMB666.7m. The stronger revenue YoY was achieved despite lower ASPs across all product segments, as it was more than compensated by higher production capacity due to its capacity expansion. As a result of weaker ASPs, gross margin was down from 34.2% in 3Q07 to 31.0% in 3Q08. NPAT grew 19.2% YoY for 3Q08 from RMB217.1m to RMB258.7m, a much lower quantum than its top line growth mainly due to inclusion of income tax after enjoying a tax-free status due to its WOFE status in the previous two years.

Our prognosis. In our recent company update report, we highlighted that the textile industry would be severely hit due to slowing Chinese exports and a relatively stronger RMB. This would impact Li Heng directly in terms of its ability to continue to secure future sales and also put further pressure on its ASPs and gross margins. Hence, especially in the next two quarters, we expect to see margins come under even more pressure alongside price drops in PA chips and nylon yarns, albeit at a slowing rate of decline. This will inadvertently result in quarterly financial performances taking further dips in light of the current crisis.

Management key takeaways 1: ASPs. Management concurs with our view that the global economic slowdown has posed very challenging times ahead for the company. Hence they expect ASPs of nylon products to continue their downward slide for 4Q08 and possibly into 1Q09.

Management key takeaways 2: Dividend policy. The dividend of 1.5 S¢ for 3Q08 represents a 45% payout of NPAT. Management mentioned that they will seriously consider maintaining this payout ratio going forward after carefully accounting for business conditions going forward. If this actually gets implemented, based on Li Heng’s last traded price of S$0.295, the dividend yield would jump from 10.8% to 19.4% for FY08 and from 11.4% to 20.5% for FY09. We have earlier based our assumption on a payout of 25%.

Management key takeaways 3: Phase III expansion. Management has been prudent enough in our view, to acknowledge the slowdown in its operating environment, and has hence recognised the point that it can afford putting off its target of expanding nylon yarn capacity by 3Q09. This possible move will allow them to cut back on capex (reduced from RMB600m to RMB 200m for FY09), increase working capital, and improve overall cash flow.

Valuation and recommendation. Li Heng has done quite well in terms of meeting the investment community’s expectations so far in terms of its financial performance. However, 4Q08 and beyond is proving to be an uphill battle for management due to the worldwide economic slowdown. Hence, we are cautiously optimistic of the Group’s ability to deliver on our already reduced FY09 estimates. We will wait till the Group announces its 4Q08 to see if further adjustments to our FY09 forecasts are necessary. For now, we maintain our BUY call with a 12-month price target of S$0.685, which is an undemanding 5.2x our FY09 EPS forecast. The stock currently trades at 2.5x FY08 P/E and 2.2x FY09 P/E, giving an attractive yield of 11.4%.

source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

City Developments: S$6.09 NEUTRAL (TP: S$5.53) - A Subdued 3Q08

City Developments Limited (CDL) registered an 11.0% YoY dip in 3Q08 PATMI to S$150.8m. On a 9-month basis, PATMI came to S$481.0m, which was slightly under expectations, accounting for 64.5 – 68.0% of our projections and the Street’s. Development plans for South Beach have been deferred. Aside from the expectation of softening construction costs, we surmise it could also be attributable to capital preservation being top of the participating companies’ agenda given the ongoing tight credit conditions. Despite delaying the launch of The Arte and The Quayside Collection, their constructions are set to continue due to the low building costs secured and land costs of under S$400 psf ppr. As such, we believe CDL could launch them at attractive prices when sentiments improve, and book in a relatively higher amount of cashflow. Only a third of CDL’s pre-sold DPS-qualifiable projects were sold under the scheme, while a bulk of CDL’s projects under development would only be completed in 2010 and 2011, which should allow buyers to have a reasonable amount of time to secure bank loans especially with interest rates expected to remain soft. From our view, CDL’s share price in the near-term would be weighed down by an ongoing global slowdown within the hospitality sector, as well as weak sentiments in the domestic property sphere. However, its portfolio of more mass-mid market residential landbank and current/future projects suggests that it is in a better position to ride on any remaining interest from genuine owner-occupiers, and any potential spillover from the still-buoyant activity within the HDB segment. For the next two years, we estimate that CDL should be able to book in approximately S$400 – 500m worth of PBT from previously sold units. Further, with a cash position of S$813.3m and net gearing of 0.47x, its balance sheet remains healthy. Nonetheless, in view of the anticipated residential slowdown, we have delayed our sale & launch schedules for CDL’s domestic residential projects, as well as assumed price declines of 3 – 8% for the remaining 2008 and 10 – 20% for 2009, with a slight 1 – 5% improvement in 2010. Additionally, we have accounted for a higher cap rates (+25 – 50bps) for its investment properties, as well as pegging the target prices of its two listed entities to current market prices. As such, earnings estimates for FY08F and FY09F are trimmed by 9.4 – 22.1% to S$640.5m and S$600.2m respectively. Discounting our new base case end-09 base case RNAV of S$11.05 by trough metrics of 50%, we trim our fair value for CDL to S$5.53 (previously S$11.25). Maintain NEUTRAL.

source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Obama Says Paulson May Be Disappointed by Parts of Rescue Plan

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- President-elect Barack Obama said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson may be disappointed with some aspects of the federal government's $700 billion bailout of the banking industry.

``Hank Paulson has worked tirelessly under some very difficult circumstances,'' Obama said in an hourlong interview to be aired on ``60 Minutes'' tomorrow night, according to excerpts released by CBS News. ``I think Hank would be the first one to acknowledge that probably not everything that's been done has worked the way he had hoped it would work.''

Obama said he has assigned someone on his presidential transition team who ``interacts'' with Paulson daily.

``We are getting the information that's required, and we're making suggestions in some circumstances about how we think they might approach some of these problems,'' Obama said.

Obama also said the government must do more to help distressed homeowners.

``We have not focused on foreclosures and what's happening to homeowners as much as I would like,'' Obama said, according to the excerpts. He called for setting up ``a negotiation between banks and borrowers so that people can stay in their homes.''

CBS also reported that Obama said during the interview that he would name a Republican to his Cabinet.

A number of influential congressional Democrats and the military favor the idea of asking Defense Secretary Robert Gates to remain for an interim period. As the new president focuses on the financial crisis, they argue, this would offer continuity.

``He's done an extraordinary job,'' Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat, said of Gates earlier this month. ``I would hope that in some capacity he could continue to serve.''

source: bloomberg

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Asian Stocks Fall, Extend Global Rout, on U.S. Treasury, Intel

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks and U.S. futures fell, extending a global rout, as the U.S. Treasury scrapped plans to buy mortgage assets, Intel Corp. cut its sales forecast and Best Buy Co. warned of a slowdown in spending.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. dropped 4.4 percent as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson shifted the focus of the government’s $700 billion bailout plan to consumer credit. Citigroup Inc. and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index slid to 12-year lows yesterday. Toshiba Corp., Japan’s largest semiconductor maker, dropped 4.8 percent after Intel lowered its fourth-quarter sales prediction by about $1 billion. Best Buy, the largest U.S. electronics retailer, lost 8 percent in New York after saying profit will decrease.

“With Paulson’s plan change, investors think the initial $700 billion won’t be enough,” Mitsushige Akino, who oversees about $468 million at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Best Buy’s forecast illustrates the dimming spending climate in the U.S.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 3.9 percent to 83.12 at 9:28 a.m. in Tokyo. All Asian markets open for trading slumped. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 5.2 percent to 8,246.22. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 4.3 percent.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.6 percent. Financial stocks led the gauge down 5.2 percent yesterday, leaving it less than 0.5 percent above its lowest close in five years. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index sank 3.3 percent.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, dropped 7.5 percent after oil sank to $55.43 a barrel and metals prices slumped. Exxon Mobil Corp., the biggest oil company, fell 5.1 percent in New York.

New Facility

The collapse of the U.S. mortgage market sparked $950 billion in losses and writedowns at financial companies and now threatens a global economic recession. Central banks in the U.S., U.K. and Japan are among those that have lowered benchmark interest rates to stimulate spending and growth as consumer confidence wanes.

Treasury and Federal Reserve officials are exploring a new “facility” to bolster the market for securities backed by assets, Paulson said. Officials are considering using a portion of the $700 billion financial bailout money to “encourage private investors to come back to this troubled market,” he said.

Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan’s biggest bank, lost 4.6 percent to 587 yen. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s biggest mortgage lender, fell 5.2 percent to A$33.29 after saying bad debts may double this year.

Citigroup, Bank of America Corp., and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. dropped more than 9 percent each in U.S. trading yesterday.

“It’s hard to get away from the drumbeat of negatives,” said Liam Dalton, who oversees $1.3 billion as New York-based chief executive officer of Axiom Capital Management.

‘Significantly Weaker’

Best Buy, the largest U.S. electronics retailer, yesterday slashed its earnings forecast for the year through February, citing a “seismic” slowdown in consumer spending. The report preceded Intel’s announcement that its fourth-quarter sales will be lower than its earlier estimate by about $1 billion amid “significantly weaker” demand.

Toshiba slumped 4.8 percent to 337 yen in Tokyo. Sony Corp., the world’s second-largest consumer electronics maker, dropped 7.3 percent to 2,030 yen. Samsung Electronics Co. lost 2.8 percent to 467,000 won.

Japan’s exports to the U.S., which accounted for about a fifth of the total, fell 11 percent in September, while companies from Sony to Toyota Motor Corp. cut earnings forecasts in the past month.

Commodity Prices Slump

Energy companies on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.4 percent as a group, while raw-material producers declined 4.4 percent collectively. Melbourne-based BHP tumbled 8.5 percent to A$25.89, while Rio Tinto Group dropped 5.1 percent to A$71.37.

Oil sank 5.3 percent to $56.16 a barrel at the close of New York trading on forecasts that tomorrow’s Energy Department report will show U.S. crude inventories grew last week amid decreased energy demand. Nickel, gasoline and crude led declines in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

CapitaLand: S$2.76 BUY (TP: S$0.3.05) - Capitalising on Capitulation

source:DMG

CapitaLand recently posted a 25.6% YoY slide in 3Q08 PATMI to S$419.4m, boosted by gains of S$317.4m from asset divestments. While we recognise CapitaLand’s proven track record of seeking out new residential geographies, we note that a majority of its current projects and landbank (80% of total residential GFA) are situated in Singapore and China. As such, it is not immune from current negative sentiments from these two regions. Although we take heart from recent country and sector-specific policies, we reckon that sentiments would remain soured as long as the global macroeconomic climate does not improve. For CapitaLand, this implies further dampeners on core earnings. In view of the anticipated residential slowdown, we have delayed our sale & launch schedules, as well as assumed price declines of 13 – 28% and 13 – 21% from 2H08 through 2H09 for Singapore and China respectively, with a slight recovery beginning 1H10. Since its listing, CapitaLand has moulded a productive capital recycling model, exemplified today by S$24.8b worth of five REITs and 17 PE funds. While we acknowledge that their contributions would not be as significant as its residential business units, we believe that their recurring and stable nature would help to mitigate the uncertainty and present weakness of the cyclical and lumpy-earnings residential sector. Despite the credit squeeze, recent successful asset divestments suggest that CapitaLand is still able to tap on its private funds and other third parties. Further, with a low net gearing of 0.51x and a cash coffer of S$4.2b, CapitaLand is well-poised to seize any upcoming business opportunities in the different regions which it is operating in. At current levels, CapitaLand is trading at 23% discount to its end-3Q08 NAV of S$3.60. Historically during the past few crises, CapitaLand has been trading at 40 – 60% discount to its NAV. Taking the view that CapitaLand is now of a different stead compared to then, we have thus pegged our RNAV base-case value of S$5.05 to the lower end of that range at 40% discount, implying end-FY09 fair value of S$3.05. Maintain BUY.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Sarin Technologies: S$0.16 (NOT RATED) - Limited impact from current economic crisis

As pre-warned. In-line with the profit guidance that the company had issued prior to releasing its financials, 3Q08 net earnings fell 49% to US$1m while turnover declined 6.9% to US$8.8m. Due to the global financial crisis and the tight credit market, Sarin had seen an overall slowdown in demand from diamond manufacturers. However, 3Q08 gross margins as seen in Figure 1, were higher at 65.7% due to a change in product mix although the company was badly hit on the operating front due to higher R&D and SG&A expenses while the weakening US$ was also a factor.

Robust balance sheet and cash flows. Sarin continued to be debt-free in 3Q08 while its current ratio stood at a very healthy 3.4x. Presently in a net cash position of US$11.1m, this equates to US$0.043/share and 39.9% of its current price. The company also continued to be operationally positive as it generated free cash flows of US$4.0m during the quarter.

Macro outlook is not positive. Management has mentioned that the global economic slowdown has affected its business. Consumers in the US – the world’s single largest market for polished diamonds – have cut back on their purchase of luxury items, such as diamonds, during the current financial crisis. Should this downturn continue to linger, we believe that the company may be further affected.

Valuation & Recommendation. At S$0.16, it is currently trading at 3.4x FY07 P/E. We presently do not have a rating on Sarin although we will be initiating coverage on the stock. To the best of our knowledge, there are currently no consensus forecasts on Sarin while all of its main competitors are unlisted companies.

source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

HL Asia: S$0.67 BUY (TP: S$1.00) - One-time items key to 3Q08 earnings plunge, although core earnings softness is also evident

HLA reported 3Q08 net profit of S$3.7m, down 85% YoY, way below our expectations. Excluding one-time items of 1) warranty provisions of S$9m, 2) professional fees of S$2m and 3) part-time employees insurance of S$3m, net profit would have been closer to S$15m. 3Q07 net profit of S$25.3m included one-time gains from sale of CDL shares of S$3.8m. Hence, core net profit would have fallen a smaller 30% YoY.

Revenue rose 7% YoY to S$838m. Xinfei unit sales of 766k white goods (comprising refrigerators, freezer and air-cons) was close to 3Q07’s 777k. For Yuchai, diesel engine unit sales was 76.7k units, marginally lower than 3Q07’s 81.1k units. However, ASP for diesel engines was higher YoY due to higher raw material prices, and this contributed to the revenue expansion. For the building materials group (BMG), lower selling prices were recorded on an essentially flat sales volume in ready-mix concrete.

Expect soft earnings going ahead. Management indicated that BMG has a backlog of orders till end-2009, but margins may come under pressure from lower selling prices. In addition, some developers are postponing completion dates of projects and this could adversely affect BMG revenues going ahead. Management also said that 4Q08 earnings would be impacted by another S$3m one-time expenses for employees’ insurance for part-time staff (similar to that for 3Q08).

We cut our 2008 and 2009 net profit by 41% & 56% to S$66m & S$55m respectively. This factors in slowing demand for its China operations, lower margin for its BMG business and the one-time expenses expected for 4Q08.

Lower target price but remains a BUY. We use sum-of-the parts valuation methodology, which gives us a S$1.00 target price. This is lower than our previous S$2.70 target price primarily due to our lower earnings forecast for 2009, as well as P/E compression for its peers (which we factor into the valuation). We believe the future earnings weakness has already been largely factored into HLA share price. Even with our lower earnings forecast, HLA trades at a 2009 P/E of 4.6x, which is relatively low. Though there could be temporary share price weakness following this set of results, we believe any softness offers investors to BUY into a company with good potential for long term growth in China.

source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

SingTel: S$2.42 NEUTRAL (TP: S$2.67) - Earnings drag

Below expectations. In the second quarter to 30 Sep 08, revenue increased 5.3% to S$3.89b while underlying net profit slid 12.3% to S$801m. The bottom line came in below our expectations due to a confluence of negative factors – high acquisition and marketing costs for the iPhone 3G initiative, weaker regional currencies, lower earnings from Indonesia’s Telekomsel resulting from price competition and post-tax loss from Pakistan-based Warid Telecom. Taking away the impact of the depreciation in Australia and regional currencies, SingTel would have registered a fall of 5% in earnings, which would still have been lower than our estimates.

No more clear blue skies. SingTel expects its core markets in Singapore and Optus to grow its revenue and EBITDA. But the weaker A$ will have an adverse impact on the earnings for the Group. What will hit it further is the lacklustre performance of its regional associates. Telekomsel, in particular, saw pre-tax profit slump 40% (in S$ terms) to S$113m. In our recent note where we downgraded SingTel, we had anticipated the associates’ to grow 3% in FY09, down from our earlier target of 9% growth. However, we are now expecting the associates’ contribution to be 15% lower compared to a year ago.

Earnings downgraded. As a result of the revised outlook, we have lowered our earnings by 9.5% from S$3.81b to S$3.45b (-12.3% YoY) in FY09 and 9.9% from S$4.12b to S$3.71b (+7.6% YoY) in FY10. We have also reduced our sum-of-the-parts valuation from S$2.80 to S$2.67, mainly due to the bleaker forecast for its associates. Maintain NEUTRAL.

source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

U.S. Stocks Drop on Concern Over Worsening Economy; GM Slumps

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped for a second day as a deteriorating outlook for American industry and oil's decline below $60 a barrel signaled the recession may deepen.
General Motors Corp. tumbled to the lowest price since 1942 as the automaker crept closer to bankruptcy, while Tyco International Ltd., the world's largest maker of security systems, sank the most in six years on a profit forecast that trailed analysts' estimates. Prudential Financial Inc. slid 10 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said investment losses may force insurers to raise more capital and threaten credit ratings. Exxon Mobil Corp. slumped as much as 3.3 percent as crude declined on speculation demand will slow.
``We're going to see a lot of corporate grief,'' Harvey Pitt, former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and chief executive officer of Kalorama Partners, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. ``We'll see companies laying off a lot of people and the market reflecting a lack of confidence in a lot of companies' values.''
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 2.9 percent to 892.17 at 11:27 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 249.7 points, or 2.8 percent, to 8,620.84, with 29 of its 30 companies retreating. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.7 percent to 1,573.48. More than five stocks declined for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
Financials and raw material producers led the S&P 500 to a 39 percent retreat this year as profits for the world's biggest banks slumped and commodities tumbled. Credit Suisse AG lowered its mid-2009 target for the S&P 500 to 1,050 from 1,200 today.
Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index lost 3.7 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 3.6 percent.
Profit Erosion
The S&P 500 dropped yesterday on a worsening profit outlook for companies, including Goldman Sachs and Google Inc. Third- quarter earnings shrank 17 percent for S&P 500 companies that reported results, according to Bloomberg data. Profits for 2008 will decrease an average 8.5 percent and rise 12 percent next year, based on a survey of analysts' estimates.
``No one is really willing to stick their neck out in this market,'' said Craig Hodges, a fund manager at Dallas-based Hodges Capital Management Inc., which oversees $1 billion. ``If you listen to the company forecasts and the news going on, there's no overwhelming reason to do so.''
GM dropped for a fifth straight day, losing as much as 18 percent to $2.75, the lowest price since December 1942, according to Global Financial Data in Los Angeles. The largest U.S. automaker, burning cash as U.S. sales slide, is being pushed closer to bankruptcy as it waits to learn whether the auto industry will win a new round of government loans.
`Huge Deal'
``If GM disappears or goes into bankruptcy, I think politically and psychologically it's a huge deal,'' said Stephen Wood, who helps manage $181 billion as a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments in New York. ``Worrying about earnings is a luxury right now. We're worried about survivorship.''
Tyco lost 15 percent to $21.54, its steepest intraday tumble since July 2002. The company said fiscal 2009 and first- quarter profit will trail analysts' estimates, hurt by a higher U.S. dollar and slowing global economies.
Financial stocks in the S&P 500 slumped 3.8 percent after Goldman Sachs reduced its rating on the life-insurance industry to ``cautious'' from ``neutral.'' The analysts advised selling shares of Prudential, Lincoln National Corp., Principal Financial Group Inc. and Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. on concern the companies will need to raise more capital and their credit ratings may get cut.
Prudential slid $3 to $27.95 and the S&P 500 Insurance Index declined 5.6 percent.
Credit Losses
American Express Co. lost 5.4 percent to $22.68. The company won U.S. Federal Reserve approval to become a commercial bank, which may give it access to the Treasury's $250 billion bank rescue program. Worsening credit losses will continue to plague the largest U.S. credit-card company by purchases, said Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney.
Yesterday's revised bailout of American International Group Inc. marked the first time cash from the rescue fund Congress created last month has been committed to a failing company. Banks around the world lost more than $900 billion since the middle of last year as forecloses reached record highs and complex, illiquid securities backed by mortgage loans plunged in value.
Energy Slump
Energy companies and raw-material producers in the S&P 500 fell 4.4 percent and 5.4 percent respectively.
Exxon Mobil declined 3.1 percent to $71.75. Chevron Corp. slumped 3.4 percent to $71.82. Peabody Energy Corp., the largest U.S. coal producer, retreated 11 percent as the S&P 500 Energy Index lost 4.3 percent.
Crude oil fell below $59 a barrel in New York amid speculation the International Energy Agency will lower its 2009 demand forecast as slowing economic growth cuts fuel consumption.
Tyson Foods Inc. slumped 25 percent to $5.01. The second- largest U.S. chicken producer was downgraded to ``underweight'' from ``overweight'' at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which said the stock may drop 40 percent as losses next year put the company in danger of violating debt agreements.
Toll Brothers Inc. lost 3.3 percent to $18.32. The largest U.S. luxury homebuilder reported its 10th straight quarterly revenue decline as home prices plunged and consumer confidence fell. Homebuilding revenue dropped to about $691 million in the fiscal fourth quarter from $1.17 billion a year earlier.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and housing industry officials plan a new mortgage modification program designed to cut payments for hundreds of thousands of homeowners facing foreclosure, according to people briefed on the matter.
Under the proposal, mortgage servicers will work with borrowers to reduce monthly payments to 38 percent of their income, a level considered a threshold for affordability, using a combination of lower principals, interest-rate reductions and extensions, the people said.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

GRP Limited: S$0.14 Initiating Coverage-NEUTRAL (TP: S$0.13) - A cash-rich company facing headwind

GRP Limited (GRP) engages in several diverse autonomous business units, namely 1) Hose and Marine, 2) Measuring Instruments/Metrology, 3) uPVC Pipes and Fittings and 4) Industrial Property Management.

Cash-loaded, no debt financial position. As of Jun 08, GRP holds cash of S$12.3m, and has neither short-term nor long-term debt in its balance sheet. While we acknowledge GRP’s healthy balance sheet position to a prudent management team who is mindful of the tight credit situation and high refinancing costs, we believe GRP’s strong financial position is attributed largely to GRP’s lacklustre growth strategies, even in boom years. Undoubtedly, GRP has no immediate plans for M&A activities or extensive capital spending. We believe GRP is likely to return capital to its shareholders through dividends. We have assumed dividend payout of 60% for both FY09 and FY10, translating to dividend yields of 13.1% and 10.6% respectively.

Nonetheless, business would be hit by both offshore marine and global economy outlook. GRP’s core business drivers stem from Hose and Marine as well as Measuring Instruments/Metrology. GRP liaises directly with the shipyards to provide customized hoses and fittings. Its measuring instruments division is dependent on the global economy. In the face of a looming outlook for both offshore marine and the global economy, we are expecting declining net profit for both FY09 and FY10.

Initiating coverage with a NEUTRAL rating. GRP is currently trading at 4.6x FY09 and 5.6x FY10 P/E. We value GRP based on 0.7x FY09 P/B (pegging to post-crisis levels) to derive a target price of S$0.13. We initiate coverage of GRP with a NEUTRAL rating

source:DMG

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

First Resources: S$0.37 NEUTRAL (TP: S$0.36) - To Face Headwinds

Robust 3Q08 results. First Resources (FR) released a decent set of 3Q08 results. YoY revenue growth was up 50.8%, bringing its 3Q08’s revenue to IDR636b from IDR422b. This can be attributed to an increase in sales volume as well as average selling prices of CPO and PK. Gross profit margin improved from 57.5% in 3Q07 to 67.6% in 3Q08, reflecting the sensitivity of CPO price increases on FR's profitability. PATMI also improved 117% YoY from IDR93.5b to IDR202.9b in 3Q08.

Large proportion of debt are non current in nature. We are comforted by the fact that 99% of borrowings/ debt securities repayable (about IDR1.9t) are non current in nature. This allows management some time before repayment is due, to pay extra attention to financial liquidity and cost management issues.

Low cash cost of production. Not all is gloom and doom – FR has managed to maintain a relatively low cash cost of production of US$200/tonne (for nucleus) for 9M08, in spite of a rising cost environment. This low cash cost of production would put them in good stead to weather the upcoming headwinds of low CPO prices, tight credit conditions amid a slowing economic environment.

CPO price assumption revised down, new fair value of S$0.36. Current CPO futures’ prices (Nov delivery) is RM1,625/tonne. However, it has hovered in the RM1,400–1,500/tonne range prior to the recent rebound. With the deteriorating global economic front and crude oil prices currently hovering the US$60-70/bbl range (versus its peak of US$147/bbl in July), we opt to be cautious and revise our CPO price assumption to RM1,500/tonne, down from
RM2,600/tonne previously.

Reflecting the change in our CPO price assumption, our FY09F revenue has been adjusted to IDR1.6t (from IDR2.4t, -32.9%). In addition, earnings for FY09F has also been adjusted to IDR501b (from IDR856b, -41.5%). We have also projected a conservative 5% YoY growth of CPO production in FY09, against FY08’s 10% YoY growth from FY07. This is due to management‘s disclosure that they had observed some form of biological tree stress in 3Q08 – the YoY FFB growth in 3Q08 was only approximately 4%, as compared to prior quarters’ double-digit YoY growth. This is attributable to the high output in the last 12 months. As it is uncertain at this point in time whether this significant reduction in FFB growth rate is short term or longer term in nature, we have decided to err on the side of caution and cut our YoY growth rate by 5 ppt.

At this point in time, we are maintaining our P/E valuation matrix of 7x our FY09F earnings (7x being the average of 10-year historical low P/E valuation for Indonesian and Singapore listed plantation companies). Taking into account the above revisions, we derive a new fair value of S$0.36 for FR (from S$1.00 previously). We downgrade the stock from buy to neutral.

source:dmg

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Monday, November 10, 2008

Sembcorp boosts Q3 net profit by 24.8% to $144.9m

SembCorp Industries has boosted third-quarter profit 24.8 per cent to $144.9 million on an 11.7
per cent increase in revenue to $2.5 billion. For the first nine months, the main profit contributors
continued to be marine and utilities, which accounted for 96 per cent of group profit. Overall,
turnover rose 18.8 per cent to $7.2 billion, while profit increased 8.5 per cent to $406.2 million.
The utilities business continues to do well. Turnover increased 30 per cent to $1.3 billion in Q3
and by 33 per cent to $3.5 billion in the first nine months. Nine-month profit fell to $170.4 million
from $179.4 million previously, although in the previous corresponding period the UK's
performance was boosted by a profit on the sale of land. Singapore and UK operations
contributed $118.6 million and $52.9 million respectively. Q3 profit rose by a third to $66.3
million, but this was primarily due to gains from the transfer of transmission and distribution
pipeline assets to PowerGas.
Turnover for the marine business increased 8 per cent to $3.4 billion in the first nine months on
better performance by Sembcorp's rig-building, offshore, conversion and repair businesses. But
Q3 revenue was flat at $1.1 billion. Profit, however, continued to be strong, rising 68 per cent in
Q3 to $86.1 million and 48 per cent for the first nine months to $220.5 million. This was due to
higher operating margins from rig-building and shiprepair work and better contributions from
associates. While contributing only a small part to Sembcorp's overall profit, the environment,
industrial parks and others/corporate businesses performed badly. Industrial parks profit fell 37
per cent to $7.2 million, mainly due to lower contributions from parks in Indonesia and Vietnam,
which was partly offset by a higher contribution from an industrial park in China.
The environment and others/corporate businesses turned in losses of $4.1 million and $10.6
million respectively. The environment's loss ballooned from $460,000 in the previous Q3 as
business was hit by impairment charges for plant and machinery. The others/corporate segment
turned to a loss from a $3.9 million profit previously, mainly due to the weak performance of an
offshore engineering associate in China.

Source: Business Times

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Venture Corporation: CDO losses remain a dragV

Hit by CDOs. 3Q08 revenue inched up 3.2% to S$965.6m although the increase would have
been greater at 13.8% should turnover had been measured in US$. Net profit, however, fell
47.8% to S$40.1m as Venture was hit by a S$29.8m non-cash charge on its CDOs in 3Q08.
Management also noted that EBITDA would have stood at S$84.6m and S$263.1m for 3Q08 and
9M08 respectively should the CDO charges were to be excluded.
Lacklustre results even if CDO charges were excluded. We note that bottomline in 3Q08 and
9M08 excluding the mark-to-market adjustments came up to S$69.9m and S$219m respectively
– still lower than the year ago period at S$76.3m and S$225.7m. With several of the major CMs
reporting lower earnings for their latest quarterly results due to the global economic slowdown,
we believe that Venture may not be spared from this trend either.
Full recovery of the CDOs? While we had previously expected Venture to fully recover the
S$167.8m host value on its CDO when it matures in Dec 09, we had not foreseen such a drastic
downturn in the global credit market. According to Venture, the spread for its CDOs had widened
from 138 basis points in end-Jun 08 to 168 during end-Sep 08.





The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Emerging Economies Pledge New Stimulus to Tackle Global Slump

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Finance ministers from emerging economies said they'd take new measures to tackle the global economic slowdown at a meeting of finance officials from the Group of 20 nations meeting in Sao Paulo yesterday.
Brazil, Russia, India and China, the so-called BRIC nations, plan coordinated measures to increase trade and capital flows between their economies, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said in an interview. Mexican Deputy Finance Minister Alejandro Werner said slower economic growth and lower food and commodity prices justify cutting interest rates.
The ministers are meeting amid evidence the financial crisis that is pushing the world's biggest industrialized economies into recession is dragging down growth in Asia and Latin America. India, Russia and Brazil have already injected funds into commercial banks and South Korea last week unveiled a 14 trillion won ($10.8 billion) fiscal stimulus plan.
``This is a global crisis and demands global solutions,'' Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told delegates. ``The participation of the developing world is essential.''
Finance ministers and central bankers from the G-20 are meeting in Sao Paulo to lay the groundwork for a Nov. 15 heads of state summit in Washington. The meeting concludes today.
``Finance ministers of BRIC countries have worked out measures for the near future,'' Kudrin said yesterday. ``We have agreed that we can jointly increase trade and capital flows. The major thing is that we are prepared to coordinate.''
International Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund is forecasting that the U.K., Japan, the euro region and the U.K. economies will all contract next year, their first simultaneous recessions since the Second World War. With slower growth damping inflationary pressures, central banks are likely to cut borrowing costs further, Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said.
``There are ongoing conversations about who plans to do what when'' on interest rates, Flaherty said. ``I expect that these discussions will lead to some degree of coordinated action.''
Canada's central bank joined the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England in an unprecedented coordinated interest rate cut on Oct. 8 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. sent credit markets into seizure. The Reserve Bank of India on Nov. 1 lowered its main interest rate for the second time in two weeks while China cut its key interest rate for the third time in two months on Oct. 29.
``We are closely watching the development of the financial crisis and the situation regarding global activity,'' Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said yesterday. ``If China can maintain domestic demand, it's helpful for global stability.''
Government Spending
Calls from the IMF and U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown for coordinated fiscal stimulus will probably fail to win backing from the group because some countries are concerned about increasing public spending, Flaherty said.
``Ideally that would be so -- it's just not likely to happen,'' Flaherty said. ``Some countries feel that they are more constrained than others.''
China's willingness to stimulate its economy may play an important role in supporting world growth, Flaherty said. China's economy grew at the slowest pace in five years in the three months through September as export orders shrank and industrial production waned.
``Chinese authorities talked about having a strong fiscal expansion,'' World Bank President Robert Zoellick said in a briefing yesterday. ``China is in a very good position.''
Companies from Paris to Mexico City are feeling the heat as credit dries up. PSA Peugeot Citroen is cutting staff in China, Mexican homebuilder Consorcio Ara SAB's middle-class clients are struggling to raise home-loans and Brazilian aircraft maker, Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA, slashed its 2009 forecast for deliveries by a quarter.
``Clearly, a lower interest rate would be very favorable to stimulate aggregate demand and to lessen the impact of the international crisis,'' said Mexico's Werner, a former central bank economist.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Friday, November 7, 2008

OCBC earnings release

Results review OCBC reported a decline in core net earnings to S$396mil (-6.8%
yoy, +3.9% qoq, 2Q08: S$381mil) due to higher operating profits but negated by
higher allowances.
Net interest income grew to S$684mil (+20.9% yoy, +1.0% qoq) attributable to 20.2%
growth in loans and improved NIM of 13bps to 2.18% due to lower cost of funds and
higher spreads. Non-interest income was 4.0% lower at S$462mil from lower fee
income, lower foreign exchange income and net losses of S$26mil on disposal of
investment securities. Expenses increased to S$492mil (+15.5% yoy, +4.0% qoq)
due to increased salaries and headcount, overseas investment, business-volume
related costs and consolidation of PacificMas Berhad’s expenses. Cost to income
was higher at 43.0%.
Gross loans expanded to S$81.4bil (+19.6% yoy, +3.8% qoq), driven by corporate
and SME loans in Singapore. Building and construction loans grew 38.9% to
S$16.5bil while housing loans increased 5.6% to S$19.7bil.
The Bank took a S$156mil allowance for loans and other assets comprising of S$
30mil for specific allowances, S$9mil for portfolio allowances, S$4.0mil for corporate
CDOs and S$113mil for debt securities.
NPLs fell 19.0% over the year to S$1.20bil while the NPL ratio improved to 1.3% from
2.1% last year. Total cumulative allowances amounted to 128% of NPLs as
compared to 107% last year. CAR ratio increased to 14.7% with Tier 1 higher at
14.4% after the issuance of S$2.5bil of Tier 1 preference shares.
Revise earnings estimate From history, OCBC recorded higher impairment charge
of 291bps of loans in 1998 as Singapore went through a recession during the Asian
Financial Crisis. Similarly in the Dotcom bust, OCBC charge off 108bps of loans as
impairment both in 2001 and 2002 following the contraction of the Singapore
economy in 2001.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Delong Holdings: In the red

Margins hit heavily. Despite posting a 59.7% gain in revenue YoY for 3Q08 from S$399.3m to S$637.5m due to higher sales volume from expanded production capacities and higher ASPs, Delong’s gross profit fell a hefty 85.4% from S$39.7m to S$5.8m during the same period. This also meant that gross profit margins plummeted YoY from 10.0% to 0.9% for 3Q08. Consequently, it slumped into net losses of S$11.9m for 3Q08, against profits of S$24.7m.

Comparison of exceptional gains. Almost 73% of the S$11.2m exceptional gains comprised of a foreign exchange gain of S$8.2m, which resulted from a revaluation of bank borrowings denominated in USD as it weakened against the RMB during the third quarter. This was against a foreign exchange loss of S$2.7m in 3Q07. Therefore, stripping out these differences, the Group’s slump would have been more pronounced - a net loss of S$20.1m in 3Q08 versus NPAT of S$27.4m in the previous corresponding period.

Increase in finance costs. Total debt (interest-bearing only, hence the convertible zero-coupon bonds are excluded) as of 9M08 stood at S$340.2m versus S$188.0m a year ago, which represents an 81.0% increase YoY. As a consequence of taking on more debt, finance costs surged by 140.7%, from S$6.9m in 3Q07 to S$16.6m in 3Q08. The huge increase in borrowings brings the Group’s gearing to 77.7%, and provided another drag to its bottom line for 3Q08.

Our synopsis. The Group sold 650k tonnes of HRCs and 32k tonnes of steel billets in 3Q08, versus 601k HRCs and 10k tonnes of steel billets in 3Q07, representing a small gain in tonnage sold of 11.7%. This was an underachievement on the back of production capacity having increased from 2.4m tonnes in Jan 07 to 3.0m tonnes in Jan 08. There has been a considerable slowdown in the Chinese steel industry, exemplified by the shutting down of production by as much as 20% by the largest players, lower raw material prices, and battered prices of steel products.

Another obvious reading of a deteriorating operating environment is the Group’s gross profit margin, which slumped from 10.0% to 0.9% in the third quarter. This boiled down to higher input costs locked-in or procured earlier in the year versus falling ASPs of steel products as prices started coming off from late Jul 08 onwards

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Olam: risk management system in place

Prices of most inventories are hedged. Olam’s business model is to earn a margin from providing the supply chain management service to its clients, and Olam does not speculate on soft commodity prices to get its margin. Olam typically hedges 80-85% of its inventories with futures contracts (futures contract exist for cotton, coffee, cocoa and sugar) and forward agreements. Price volatility for these hedged commodities will therefore not impact on Olam’s profitability. However, there remains a 15-20% of its inventory which is unhedged, and this is estimated at S$269-358m (based on Jun 08 inventories of S$1.79b). Management indicated that the price volatility of these unhedged commodities is typically less than that for commodities with futures contracts. If the prices of these unhedged positions were to hypothetically fall 10%, then PBT could fall S$27-36m. However, we note that the impact is only one-time and the situation will normalize when commodity prices stabilize.

Olam controls its customer exposure according to some grading system. For the larger customers, Olam deals with them on a cash-against-documents basis. For the next level of customers (which are the smaller ones), the price exposure is limited to 3-6 months and not more than US$200k per invoice. Lastly, for some African customers, sales is done on the spot. This management system helps Olam control its counter-party risk.

Balance sheet strength remains comfortable. Olam has a net debt to equity ratio of 3.17x. After adjustments for stocks and debtors (which are liquid and cash-like in nature), the ratio falls to 0.74x. As of Jun 08, Olam has S$1.86b of working capital loans repayable by Jun 09. Management sees continued support from banks for its working capital financing, as these are rolling in nature (upon delivery of commodities to customers, Olam receives payment and pays off the working capital loans, and takes another loan when customers give new orders). Besides these working capital loans, Olam’s next refinancing obligation is US$200m at the end of FY10.

Olam has guided volume growth of 16-20% pa for FY09 and FY10. However, we have cut our revenue forecasts to factor in lower commodity prices. We have also cut our FY09 and FY10 net profit forecasts by 9% and 6% respectively to factor in losses from unhedged positions and slower demand growth given the global economic downturn.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

U.S. Stocks Drop, Dow Average Posts Worst 2-Day Loss Since '87

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks slid and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its worst two-day loss since 1987 after jobless claims jumped and the shrinking economy decimated earnings at companies from Blackstone Group Inc. to News Corp.

Exxon Mobil Corp. dropped 4.3 percent, leading energy companies to the biggest declines in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as oil slid to a 19-month low below $61 a barrel. News Corp. sank 16 percent after the media company controlled by Rupert Murdoch said ad sales decreased. Blackstone, the world's largest private-equity firm, lost 9.5 percent after posting the biggest quarterly loss in its 18 months as a public company.

``We're a long way from the end of the economic challenges,'' said Mike Morcos, who helps manage $1 billion at Old Second Wealth Management in Aurora, Illinois. ``Earnings next year are going to be significantly lower and estimates are going to continue to come down.''

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 4.8 percent to 907.52 at 3:22 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 411.86 points, or 4.5 percent, to 8,727.41, extending its two-day loss to almost 10 percent. The Russell 2000 Index of small U.S. companies declined 2.6 percent to 501.06. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed markets lost 5.8 percent to 925.71.

The two-day tumble wiped out more than half of the S&P 500's rebound from a five-year low on Oct. 27. An industry report showing an unexpected decline in sales at chain stores in October also weighed on stocks as 23 of 27 companies in the S&P 500 Retailing Index slumped.

Europe Slides

BP Plc led a 5.6 percent retreat in Europe's benchmark index even after the Bank of England unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percentage points to 3 percent to contain damage from a recession. Switzerland's central bank and the European Central Bank reduced their main lending rates by 50 basis points.

The S&P 500 is down almost 38 percent this year, the steepest annual retreat since 1937. The benchmark for U.S. equities has plunged 41 percent since its record in October 2007 as the U.S. economy shrunk in two of the last four quarters.

``It's just been a steady, steady sell,'' said Alan Gayle, the Richmond, Virginia-based senior strategist at Ridgeworth Investments, which oversees about $70 billion. ``The pain and frustration and anxiety of these volatile moves from one day to the next has discouraged a lot of investors to move to the sidelines.''

The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, climbed 16 percent to 63.24. The measure tracks the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500.

About 481,000 workers filed initial jobless claims last week, the Labor Department said today in Washington, exceeding the 477,000 projected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The number of people staying on benefit rolls was the most since February 1983.

A report tomorrow will probably show U.S. employers eliminated jobs in October for a 10th consecutive month, based on economists' estimates.

Earnings Watch

Earnings at companies in the S&P 500 that have reported third-quarter results fell 7.2 percent on average, Bloomberg data show. Analysts expect full-year profits to drop 7.7 percent, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

S&P 500 energy companies lost 4.7 percent as a group, as oil declined for the third time this week. Crude for December delivery retreated 7 percent to $60.71 a barrel.

Exxon Mobil, the world's largest oil company, slipped $2.43 to $71.26, while Chevron Corp. slid 4.9 percent to $71.25.

Cisco declined 26 cents to $17.13 after earlier dipping as low as $16.67. Chief Executive Officer John Chambers said sales will drop as much as 10 percent in the second quarter because of the financial crisis. In August, Chambers predicted an advance of 8.5 percent from a year earlier.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. tumbled 11 percent to $3.18. The second-largest maker of personal-computer processors plans to cut 500 jobs, about 3 percent of the workforce, as part of its effort to return to profitability.

Technology companies in the S&P 500 lost 4 percent collectively. Dell Inc., Intel Corp. and Hewlett-Packard Co. fell more than 4 percent.

`Macro Concerns'

Amazon.com Inc. slid 7.3 percent to $48.18. The largest Internet retailer was cut to ``hold'' from ``buy'' at Citigroup, which noted the shares' surge of as much as 36 percent since third-quarter results and ``heightened macro concerns'' including slower consumer spending.

Tyco Electronics Ltd. tumbled 10 percent to $17.03. Fiscal fourth-quarter profit fell 55 percent on restructuring costs and the company forecast a ``significant'' drop in sales and earnings this period.

News Corp.'s Class A shares tumbled $1.43 to $8.36. Fiscal 2009 profit will drop in the ``low to mid teens'' in percentage terms, the company said after previously forecasting a gain of 4 percent to 6 percent.

Financial stocks in the S&P 500 fell 5 percent as a group, dragged down by Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. The group is down 52 percent in 2008 as the slowing economy raises concern banks will be hit by more bad loans after the subprime mortgage market's collapse led to $690 billion in credit losses worldwide.

Blackstone's Loss

Blackstone Group LP tumbled 8.8 percent to $7.84. The world's largest private-equity firm posted the biggest quarterly loss in 18 months as a public company as the financial crisis eroded the value of the businesses and real estate it has acquired. Blackstone had been expected to break even, based on the average estimate of seven analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Wells Fargo declined 9.3 percent to $28.74 after the biggest bank on the U.S. West Coast said it plans to sell stock to fund the purchase of Wachovia Corp. The bank also said losses from the acquisition will be less than previously expected.

The bank, which disclosed the share offering yesterday in a statement, had said it would raise as much as $20 billion to fund the deal. That was before the Treasury said it was buying $25 billion of Wells Fargo's preferred shares.

Big Lots Inc. plunged 24 percent to $17.67 for the steepest decline in the S&P 500. The largest U.S. seller of overstocked and discontinued items said third-quarter profit may be below its prediction.

Retail Slump

October same-store sales fell 0.9 percent at U.S. chain stores, the first drop in seven months, and declined 4.2 percent excluding Wal-Mart, the International Council of Shopping Centers said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 0.7 percent increase.

Excluding the effect of the shifting Easter holiday, it's the first decline since at least 2000, according to research firm Retail Metrics LLC.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, increased as much as 4.1 percent before surrendering its gain as the market extended its retreat. October sales climbed more than the company projected after consumers, battered by job losses and shrinking credit, bought discounted groceries and Halloween costumes.

Analysts are lowering fourth quarter and 2009 profit forecasts for U.S. companies as third-period results miss projections at the highest rate in almost 11 years.

Companies in the S&P 500 may see fourth-quarter earnings advance 15 percent, down from 42 percent projected at the end of August, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Profits in 2009 may grow 13 percent, analysts say, compared with the 24 percent predicted two months ago. Yahoo! Inc. climbed 3.1 percent to $14.35. Chief Executive Officer Jerry Yang, coping with the cancellation of an advertising agreement with Google Inc., said at a conference in San Francisco that he's open-minded about forging other deals.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month loans in dollars dropped 12 basis points to 2.39 percent today, the lowest level since November 2004, according to the British Bankers' Association.

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Jadason Enterprises:Outlook has not improved

Topline up, bottomline down. PCB driller Jadason saw a 72% increase in its 3Q08 revenue to S$58.5m although net profit was 58% lower at S$2.1m. This was mainly due to growth in the company’s lower-margined Equipment and Supplies (ES) division outstripping that of the Manufacturing and Support Services (MSS) segment.

Higher demand from the PCB manufacturers had boosted Jadason’s ES business, although the improved numbers from the company’s PCB drilling factory in Dongguan failed to shore up the whole MSS division. Additionally, FX losses of S$0.5m as compared to a S$1m gain in 3Q07 also impacted bottomline during 3Q08.

Plunge in margins. As seen in Figure 1, overall margins were drastically lower. While revenue for Jadason’s ES business had jumped 140% to S$40.2m in 3Q08 as shown in Figure 2, operating margins dived from 11.7% to 3.8% due to an unfavourable change in sales mix. Additionally, the company’s MSS segment also saw operating profit tumble 67.4% to S$1.3m despite the 6.1% increase in turnover as dismal performances from the PCB drilling facilities in Suzhou and Malaysia proved to be a drag.

Balance sheet concerns linger. Net gearing remained high at 61% although it was slightly better from 65% in 2Q08 while current ratio remained relatively flat at 1.3x. The company was also unable to generate a positive operating cash flow in 3Q08. In light of the current credit conditions, we note that Jadason may risk incurring higher borrowing costs should it continue to fail to generate cash to repay its debt which mainly consists of short-term loans. Earnings may therefore be hit as a result.

Murky outlook. Revenue from the company’s ES division is expected to stay healthy in 4Q08 although visibility for its MSS segment is clouded due to the on-going financial crisis. As management looks to focus on cash and cost management rather than capital expenditure going forward, we believe that bottomline growth in the company, if any, will be limited.

The North American PCB book-to-bill ratio currently stands at 0.95 which has been below the parity mark since May 08. Although Jadason is currently trading at 0.4x FY08F P/B which is in-line with the industry average, we are maintaining our SELL recommendation and slashing our price target to S$0.05 (from S$0.075 previously) due to its bearish prospects. We also note that save for Elec & Eltek, the other two SGX-listed PCB drillers (Multi-Chem and Eucon) are also expected to see dismal results for at least the rest of the year

The Material provided above is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell the shares mentioned

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